Cyclone Outlook

Written by on 06/01/2020

Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Territory

Northern Territory Tropical Cyclone Season Outlook 2019-20

1 November 2019.

Territorians urged to prepare for all weather hazards this wet season

The Bureau of Meteorology released its annual tropical cyclone outlook today, reminding Territorians to start preparations for severe weather during the wet season.

The outlook predicts slightly fewer tropical cyclones than average this year, which means we are likely to see two or three cyclones of any intensity and size form anywhere off the NT coast between November and April.

The Bureau’s Acting NT Manager, Jude Scott said that the last two years were average years in terms of the overall number of tropical cyclones, with 11 cyclones in Australian waters each year.

“Although we have seen the average number of tropical cyclones during the last two seasons, anyone affected by Tropical Cyclone Trevor or Marcus would agree that they were far from an average years.

“A typical wet season can bring severe impacts from all weather hazards across the entire Territory. Tropical cyclones bring damaging winds and storm surges, with heavy rainfall and flooding, but we will likely also see heatwaves, floods and damage from strong winds,” she said.

Northern Territory Emergency Services Chief Officer Fleur O’Connor agreed.

“The Bureau and NT Emergency Services are ready for whatever the coming season can throw at us – it’s a core part of our business. Now is the time for Territorians to make sure theyre ready too.

Territorians need to prepare for the coming season. While we have a highly capable emergency service, there is also a responsibility upon individuals to make their own preparations well in advance of any significant weather events.

Having a Household Emergency Plan is a great place to start in terms of preparation. Discuss with your family and friends what they will do in an emergency or disaster, she said.

Fleur O’Connor advised that it can take up to 72 hours for help to arrive after a significant event.

Ensure you have an up to date emergency kit including plenty of water, and that your kit is able to sustain you and each member of your family for three days or more, she added.

The Cyclone Outlook is calculated by taking into account the influence of various climate drivers which affect tropical weather patterns. A neutral El NioSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) has influenced this year’s tropical cyclone outlook.

The Bureau encouraged the community to always listen to advice from the NT Emergency Services and the check the latest updates via Know your weather. Know your risk. Get all the latest forecasts and warnings at, the BOM Weather app, or via Twitter at @BOM_NT.

Summary of the Tropical Cyclone Seasonal Outlook for the Northern Region

  • For the 2018-19 season, there is a 46% chance of more than the average number of tropical cyclones.
  • In a typical year, the Northern Region experiences around three cyclones and one or two tropical lows that later become cyclones after moving into the Western or Eastern regions.
  • About three-quarters of the tropical cyclones in the Northern region impact coastal regions.
  • The outlook accuracy for the Northern Region is very low.
  • National Tropical Cyclone Outlook –

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