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Written by on 25/01/2021

Active tropical lows lead to increased chance of cyclones in northern Australia   Issued: Monday, 25 January 2021   A number of tropical lows over northern Australia could strengthen later in the week, leading to an increased chance of a tropical cyclone forming in the country’s north.     On Friday, a low began to develop near the north-eastern Top End. This low has been strengthening over the weekend as monsoonal flow increases and will continue to strengthen in the Gulf of Carpentaria during the next day or two. The low is expected to move towards Queensland today and tomorrow. From mid-week, different weather patterns in the region could have varying impacts on where it moves.     At this stage the likelihood of a tropical cyclone is moving from very low today through to moderate by Wednesday. A moderate chance of a cyclone means that there’s a 20 – 50% chance of a tropical cyclone forming in northern Australia.     The monsoon and tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria is contributing to hazardous marine conditions this week with strong winds, moderate to rough seas and a north westerly swell. A marine wind warning is current for today and tomorrow for strong wind for the Arafura Coast, Gove Peninsula Coast and Roper Groote Coast.    For more weather warnings, including on heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms which can be caused by tropical lows, head to the Northern Territory Warnings Summary page.    The monsoon trough is bringing monsoonal rain, showers and thunderstorms, with this type of weather concentrated over the Top End coast this week. The monsoonal burst could contribute to abnormally high tides and rising river levels in the region.     Depending on where the falls are located, some areas could receive 200 to 300 millimetres of rainfall this week as well as flood warnings issued in response to rising water levels in the Top End. Further information on rainfall and river conditions is available online.    There are multiple tropical lows along the monsoon trough, with Northern Territory forecasters keeping an eye on 11U to see whether it strengthens as it travels slowly east or southeast through the Gulf of Carpentaria later in the week. The current forecast is for the tropical low to gradually strengthen as it moves towards the border with Queensland and closer towards coastal communities there.   

During the next day or two another tropical low is expected to develop near the southern Daly District and could lead to heavy rainfalls across the western Top End. This tropical low is expected to move westwards, across the Kimberley later this week and poses no threat of becoming a tropical cyclone near the NT coast.  
  In the 7 days to 9am Monday, these rain totals have been recorded:    174mm at Gunn Point  165mm at Darwin Hospital  140mm at Leanyer  242mm at Channel Point  170mm at Dum-In-Mirrie  167mm at Nitmuluk Ridge  197mm at Ngayawili  182 mm at Croker Island Airport  177mm at Milingimbi Airport  206mm at Upper Waterhouse  172mm at Conways  144mm at Central Waterhouse  188mm at Mount Sanford  160mm at Upper Wickham River  131mm at Victoria River Crossing  60mm at Tennant Creek Airport  43mm at Watarrka  5mm at Big Dipper    To stay up to date with tropical cyclone activity in the Northern Territory, visit the Bureau of Meteorology’s dedicated section of the website.   

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